ChrionML Research Monitor · September 2026
2 cities published2 applied ML projects64 city goal
Latest researchCity forecastsApplied MLMethods64-city roadmapPartnerships
Independent quantitative research

Evidence for better decisions.

Original housing-market forecasts and applied machine-learning studies, presented with transparent methods, measured limitations, and production context.

Research preview · Week 2

Cambridge leads near term. Ithaca leads since 2020.

The same 80-month protocol produces a split result: Cambridge carries the higher forecast value and modest month-ahead momentum, while Ithaca has delivered stronger cumulative appreciation.

Cambridge 02139 vs Ithaca 14850 · Condo/co-op series · 44 rolling backtests per city
Preview the Week 2 box score →
WEEK 2 EVIDENCE SNAPSHOTFORECAST VALUECAMBRIDGE$889KITHACA$290KGROWTH SINCE JAN 2020+17.8%+29.5%SELECTED MODELCAMBRIDGEDRIFTITHACALAST VALUE80 MONTHS · 44 ROLLING BACKTESTS PER CITY

Latest city research

Week 2 · Four findings measured with one repeatable protocol

NEXT-MONTH FORECASTCAMBRIDGE$889KITHACA$290KCAMBRIDGE FORECAST IS 3.07× ITHACA
Finding 01 · Value

Cambridge’s forecast is roughly three times Ithaca’s

The September estimate is $888,570 for Cambridge versus $289,770 for Ithaca. This compares market level—not affordability or investment quality.

Forecast ratio 3.07× · N = 80 each
Inspect the forecast →
PROJECTED MONTHLY CHANGE+0.19%0.00%CAMBRIDGEITHACA
Finding 02 · Momentum

Cambridge holds the month-ahead momentum edge

The selected models imply a modest +0.19% move for Cambridge and a flat estimate for Ithaca. The comparison is directional, not a guarantee.

One-month horizon · September 2026
Review uncertainty →
GROWTH SINCE JANUARY 2020+17.8%+29.5%JAN 2020 = 100
Finding 03 · Trajectory

Ithaca leads cumulative appreciation since 2020

Ithaca rose approximately 29.5% over the observed window versus 17.8% for Cambridge, despite its much lower current price level.

Observed history · Jan 2020–Aug 2026
Explore the trend →
BACKTEST MAE — LOWER IS BETTERCAMBRIDGEDRIFT $3,030BASE $3,250ITHACABASE $1,219DRIFT $1,491
Finding 04 · Method

The same protocol selects different models

Drift reduces Cambridge’s baseline MAE by 6.8%. In Ithaca, the last-value baseline beats Drift—evidence that model choice should remain local.

44 rolling backtests per city
Compare all models →

Four findings from Week 1

Boston 02114 vs Providence 02903 · Final

NEXT-MONTH FORECASTBOSTON$779KPROVIDENCE$438KBOSTON FORECAST IS 1.78× PROVIDENCE
Finding 01 · Value

Boston retains the higher forecast value

The September estimate is $779,306 for Boston versus $438,308 for Providence. The gap describes market level, not a universal market winner.

Forecast ratio 1.78× · N = 80 each
Inspect the final forecast →
PROJECTED MONTHLY CHANGE+0.06%+0.44%BOSTONPROVIDENCE
Finding 02 · Momentum

Providence leads projected near-term growth

The selected Drift models imply +0.44% month-ahead growth for Providence versus +0.06% for Boston—a 0.38 percentage-point advantage.

One-month horizon · September 2026
Review uncertainty →
GROWTH SINCE JANUARY 2020+4.9%+53.2%JAN 2020 = 100
Finding 03 · Trajectory

Providence’s long-run appreciation is substantially stronger

Providence gained approximately 53.2% from January 2020 through August 2026, compared with 4.9% for Boston’s condo/co-op series.

Observed history · Jan 2020–Aug 2026
Explore the trend →
BACKTEST MAE — LOWER IS BETTERBOSTONDRIFT $2,824BASE $2,953PROVIDENCEDRIFT $1,378BASE $1,818
Finding 04 · Method

Drift beats the baseline in both markets

Drift improves MAE by 4.4% in Boston and 24.2% in Providence versus the last-value baseline, using identical rolling evaluation rules.

44 rolling backtests per city
Compare the models →
Week 2 forecast snapshot

Cambridge vs Ithaca

Preview box score
Cambridge forecast$888,570Drift model
Cambridge momentum+0.19%Month-ahead projection
Ithaca forecast$289,770Last-value baseline
Ithaca growth since 2020+29.5%Observed cumulative change

Applied machine-learning projects

Real data. Reproducible evaluation. Operational context.

Project 01 · Forecasting

Hyperlocal housing forecast pipeline

A repeatable workflow for ingesting monthly market data, comparing multiple time-series candidates, conducting rolling backtests, and publishing decision-ready forecasts.

Python · Time series · Model selection · Explainability
Read the methodology →
Project 02 · Scientific AI

Scientific methods, operationalized

A platform proof of concept that converts experimental workflows into governed, versioned, observable services consumable by scientists and autonomous tools.

MLOps · API contracts · Governance · Observability
Explore the platform →
Research standard

Every claim should remain inspectable

Each publication identifies data provenance, study design, baselines, primary measures, uncertainty, limitations, and reproducibility artifacts.

Evidence policy · Version 1.0
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The 64-city research program

Scale deliberately, publish transparently

Program progress

Two markets complete. A reusable system is taking shape.

The objective is not simply to publish 64 forecasts. It is to build a comparable evidence base across markets—using consistent evaluation, clear local context, and a production workflow that can scale without sacrificing rigor.

2 / 64 cities published

Next phase: validate the publishing workflow across additional Northeast markets before expanding regionally.

01
Boston, MA · 02114
Forecast and box score
Published
02
Providence, RI · 02903
Forecast and box score
Published
03
Next Northeast market
Data qualification
Up next
04
Regional expansion
Standardized market comparisons
Planned
Research partnerships

Bring a market, dataset, or decision problem.

We are building partnerships around local data access, independent model validation, sponsored city research, and applied machine-learning systems. Every engagement starts with a defined question and an evidence plan.

Start a partnership conversation
Data partnersImprove coverage, granularity, and local context.
Research partnersCo-design studies and independently review methods.
City sponsorsSupport a transparent market forecast and publication.