ChrionML® Research Monitor · October 2026
6 cities published3 applied ML projects64 city goal
Research archiveLatest findingsCity forecastsApplied MLMethodsResearch leadPartnerships
Independent quantitative research

Evidence for better decisions.

ChrionML® transforms Zillow’s published ZHVI market histories into quality-checked datasets, independently evaluated forecasts, and decision-ready findings—with transparent methods, limitations, and source links.

Week 3 · Final research

Back Bay leads on price. Hanover leads on growth.

Back Bay’s selected model forecasts $1,300,581 for September 2026. Hanover’s lower $521,201 forecast sits alongside 57.50% cumulative growth since January 2020 and the lower selected-model MAE.

Back Bay 02116 vs Hanover 03755 · Condo/co-op ZHVI · 80 months · 44 rolling backtests per city
Open the Week 3 box score →
WEEK 3 EVIDENCE SNAPSHOTNEXT-MONTH FORECASTBACK BAY · DRIFT$1.301MHANOVER · LAST VALUE$521KGROWTH SINCE JAN 2020+10.77%+57.50%BACK BAYHANOVERLOWEST MAEHANOVER · $2,312PRICE, GROWTH AND ERROR ARE SEPARATE OUTCOMES
Research preview · Week 2

Cambridge leads near term. Ithaca leads since 2020.

The same 80-month protocol produces a split result: Cambridge carries the higher forecast value and modest month-ahead momentum, while Ithaca has delivered stronger cumulative appreciation.

Cambridge 02139 vs Ithaca 14850 · Condo/co-op series · 44 rolling backtests per city
Preview the Week 2 box score →
WEEK 2 EVIDENCE SNAPSHOTFORECAST VALUECAMBRIDGE$889KITHACA$290KGROWTH SINCE JAN 2020+17.8%+29.5%SELECTED MODELCAMBRIDGEDRIFTITHACALAST VALUE80 MONTHS · 44 ROLLING BACKTESTS PER CITY

Latest city research

Week 3 · Four findings measured with one repeatable protocol

NEXT-MONTH FORECAST$1.301M$521KBACK BAYHANOVERPRICE RATIO 2.50×
Finding 01 · Price

Back Bay wins the price comparison

The September 2026 forecast is $1,300,581 versus $521,201 for Hanover. This is a modeled index-level comparison, not an investment recommendation.

N = 80 per city · One-month horizon
Inspect the forecast →
PROJECTED MONTHLY CHANGE+0.12%0.00%BACK BAYHANOVER
Finding 02 · Momentum

Back Bay carries a modest month-ahead edge

Drift implies +0.12% for Back Bay, while Hanover’s selected Last Value model remains flat. Both estimates carry forecast uncertainty.

September 2026 forecast
Review uncertainty →
GROWTH SINCE JANUARY 2020+10.77%+57.50%JAN 2020 = 100
Finding 03 · Trajectory

Hanover leads observed cumulative growth

Hanover rose 57.50% over the observed window versus 10.77% for Back Bay, despite its materially lower price level.

Observed history · Jan 2020–Aug 2026
Read the interpretation →
SELECTED-MODEL MAE · LOWER IS BETTERBACK BAY · DRIFT$2,833HANOVER · LAST VALUE$2,312
Finding 04 · Method

Different models win in different markets

Drift narrowly improves on the baseline in Back Bay. In Hanover, Last Value is the most accurate candidate across the rolling evaluation.

44 expanding-window backtests per city
Compare model evidence →

Week 2 findings

Cambridge vs Ithaca · Prior research

NEXT-MONTH FORECASTCAMBRIDGE$889KITHACA$290KCAMBRIDGE FORECAST IS 3.07× ITHACA
Finding 01 · Value

Cambridge’s forecast is roughly three times Ithaca’s

The September estimate is $888,570 for Cambridge versus $289,770 for Ithaca. This compares market level—not affordability or investment quality.

Forecast ratio 3.07× · N = 80 each
Inspect the forecast →
PROJECTED MONTHLY CHANGE+0.19%0.00%CAMBRIDGEITHACA
Finding 02 · Momentum

Cambridge holds the month-ahead momentum edge

The selected models imply a modest +0.19% move for Cambridge and a flat estimate for Ithaca. The comparison is directional, not a guarantee.

One-month horizon · September 2026
Review uncertainty →
GROWTH SINCE JANUARY 2020+17.8%+29.5%JAN 2020 = 100
Finding 03 · Trajectory

Ithaca leads cumulative appreciation since 2020

Ithaca rose approximately 29.5% over the observed window versus 17.8% for Cambridge, despite its much lower current price level.

Observed history · Jan 2020–Aug 2026
Explore the trend →
BACKTEST MAE — LOWER IS BETTERCAMBRIDGEDRIFT $3,030BASE $3,250ITHACABASE $1,219DRIFT $1,491
Finding 04 · Method

The same protocol selects different models

Drift reduces Cambridge’s baseline MAE by 6.8%. In Ithaca, the last-value baseline beats Drift—evidence that model choice should remain local.

44 rolling backtests per city
Compare all models →

Four findings from Week 1

Boston 02114 vs Providence 02903 · Final

NEXT-MONTH FORECASTBOSTON$779KPROVIDENCE$438KBOSTON FORECAST IS 1.78× PROVIDENCE
Finding 01 · Value

Boston retains the higher forecast value

The September estimate is $779,306 for Boston versus $438,308 for Providence. The gap describes market level, not a universal market winner.

Forecast ratio 1.78× · N = 80 each
Inspect the final forecast →
PROJECTED MONTHLY CHANGE+0.06%+0.44%BOSTONPROVIDENCE
Finding 02 · Momentum

Providence leads projected near-term growth

The selected Drift models imply +0.44% month-ahead growth for Providence versus +0.06% for Boston—a 0.38 percentage-point advantage.

One-month horizon · September 2026
Review uncertainty →
GROWTH SINCE JANUARY 2020+4.9%+53.2%JAN 2020 = 100
Finding 03 · Trajectory

Providence’s long-run appreciation is substantially stronger

Providence gained approximately 53.2% from January 2020 through August 2026, compared with 4.9% for Boston’s condo/co-op series.

Observed history · Jan 2020–Aug 2026
Explore the trend →
BACKTEST MAE — LOWER IS BETTERBOSTONDRIFT $2,824BASE $2,953PROVIDENCEDRIFT $1,378BASE $1,818
Finding 04 · Method

Drift beats the baseline in both markets

Drift improves MAE by 4.4% in Boston and 24.2% in Providence versus the last-value baseline, using identical rolling evaluation rules.

44 rolling backtests per city
Compare the models →

Applied machine-learning projects

Real data. Reproducible evaluation. Operational context.

Project 01 · Forecasting

From published market history to decision-ready evidence

ChrionML® locates the appropriate Zillow ZHVI geography and housing-type series, compiles and quality-checks the monthly dataset, compares time-series candidates, runs chronological backtests, quantifies uncertainty, and publishes the findings.

Zillow ZHVI source data · ChrionML® Python workflow, modeling, evaluation and interpretation
Read the methodology →
Project 02 · Scientific AI

Scientific methods, operationalized

A platform proof of concept that converts experimental workflows into governed, versioned, observable services consumable by scientists and autonomous tools.

MLOps · API contracts · Governance · Observability
Explore the platform →
Research standard

Source data and research outputs stay distinct

Zillow publishes the underlying ZHVI series. ChrionML® performs property-type selection, dataset construction, QA, modeling, backtesting, uncertainty analysis, interpretation, and publication. Each box score links to its market sources.

Traceable provenance · Repeatable protocol · Independent analysis
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The 64-city research program

Scale deliberately, publish transparently

Program progress

Four markets complete. A reusable system is taking shape.

The objective is not simply to publish 64 forecasts. It is to build a comparable evidence base across markets—using consistent evaluation, clear local context, and a production workflow that can scale without sacrificing rigor.

4 / 64 cities published

Next phase: validate the publishing workflow across additional Northeast markets before expanding regionally.

01
Boston, MA
Forecast and box score
Published
02
Providence, RI
Forecast and box score
Published
03
Cambridge, MA
Forecast and box score
Published
04
Ithaca, NY
Forecast and box score
Published
Research partnerships

Bring a market, dataset, or decision problem.

We are building partnerships around local data access, independent model validation, sponsored city research, and applied machine-learning systems. Every engagement starts with a defined question and an evidence plan.

Start a partnership conversation
Data partnersImprove coverage, granularity, and local context.
Research partnersCo-design studies and independently review methods.
City sponsorsSupport a transparent market forecast and publication.