Week 2 · East region · Seed 2 vs Seed 15 · Research preview
Cambridge vs Ithaca
Both sides use 80 monthly observations from January 2020 through August 2026 and the same five-model, expanding-window evaluation. Model selection uses the lowest one-month-ahead mean absolute error across 44 rolling backtests.
CAM
Cambridge, MA
East seed 2 · ZIP 02139
$888,570September 2026 forecast
+0.19% vs August
VSsame protocol
ITH
Ithaca, NY
East seed 15 · ZIP 14850
$289,770September 2026 forecast
+0.00% vs August
Cambridge leads on forecast value and projected monthly growth. This does not establish superior forecast accuracy.
Forecasting box score
| Measure | Cambridge | Ithaca |
|---|---|---|
| Months analyzed | 80 (Jan 2020–Aug 2026) | 80 (Jan 2020–Aug 2026) |
| Latest typical home value | $886,874 · Aug 2026 | $289,770 · Aug 2026 |
| Historical average home value | $830,935 | $269,196 |
| Historical high home value | $898,368 · Apr 2025 | $295,971 · Aug 2023 |
| Historical low home value | $752,915 · Jan 2020 | $223,734 · Sep 2020 |
| Year-over-year change | +0.47% | +0.71% |
| Selected model | Drift | Last value baseline |
| Next-month forecast | $888,570 · +0.19% | $289,770 · +0.00% |
| 80% prediction range | $882,916–$892,368 | $288,288–$291,481 |
| Rolling forecast error | MAE $3,030 · baseline $3,250 | MAE $1,219 · baseline $1,219 |
Housing trends and September forecasts
Data QA
Rows per city80 / 80
Missing values0
Duplicate dates0
Missing months0
QA statusPASS / PASS
Method. Candidate models are last value, 12-month seasonal naive, drift, 36-month linear trend, and Holt damped trend. Each model is evaluated over 44 expanding-window, one-month-ahead forecasts. The selected model has the lowest MAE. The 80% empirical prediction range uses the selected model’s rolling residuals.
Source note. The supplied CSVs contain value and month fields but no embedded series metadata. They are treated as the condo/co-op series specified for this matchup. Zillow’s public 14850 page currently displays an all-home headline of $415,423, which is not directly comparable to the supplied Ithaca series. This research preview is not an appraisal or investment recommendation.
Source note. The supplied CSVs contain value and month fields but no embedded series metadata. They are treated as the condo/co-op series specified for this matchup. Zillow’s public 14850 page currently displays an all-home headline of $415,423, which is not directly comparable to the supplied Ithaca series. This research preview is not an appraisal or investment recommendation.